I don't think that you should assume the worst until you have to.
Start with the assumption that it could be a leaking gasket. This is a well known 'feature' of these engines, particularly the black wrinkle paint cases. Is that weep from the joint running down into the bolt, or is the bolt area definitely leaking also? From the photo, it could be the former.
This joint leak can start, as in my case, as a persistentent weep and then dramitacally progress to a huge outpouring, with oil streaming back from the bike when it's on the move. Oil leaks tend to look worse than they are though. The problem here is that a section of gasket goes missing. Sometimes a bit can be seen protruding from the joint. They seem to be prone to damage at the factory assembly, though the black paint has also been blamed for causing the damage – getting into the joint, causing the gasket to slip/mis-seat – whatever, I can't remember.
You could take it apart and replace the gasket (carefully), but I recommend sealing it externally. I cleaned the leaking joint area, sealed it with blue gasket sealer / instant gasket and then rubbed a black silicone over the top. This repair works 100% and it's practically invisible. You wouldn't see it if you didn't know it was there.
Search Tech Topics for oil leaks, timing chest leaks etc, etc, – as there is plenty more info on this particular type of leak, out there somewhere, including pictures.