What to do about the vehicle manufacturing industry

[Admin Jaap]

An electric assisted bicycle at about $1000-$2000 probably makes the most sense for me so that I can buzz down the shoulder past the gridlock, but the electric motorcycle would be more fun

Actually, these bicycles are a big hit in Holland at the moment. In the beginning only for the elderly, but they are now "accepted" even for young people.

But they don't make the world greener, because most of the times they are not used to replace commuting cars. Young people buy them because they are lazy... You even see young people in special 45 km/h cars (meant for the disabled). It's considered cool.

[John in Leeds]

GM lost money on every one of those EV1's that it was leasing. How long should a company continue to lose money on a car before it ends the program. It cost more to build the EV1 then they could lease or sell them for. They knew going in that it was just a test. The technology was not yet cheap enough to be viable. But, atleast they tried. Nobody else has stepped up to the plate.

 

But send them ALL to the crusher with buyers queing round the block? Come on.

 

All prototypes cost a shed load of money, everyone understands that. I think GM produced nearly 1100 vehicles. GM had the opportunity to sell these cars off and make a contribution towards that investment. They will have patents to protect their R & D yet they chose to destroy them all. How do we know the technology was not cheap enough to be viable? Sorry mate, to me it just does not add up.

 

One thing I'm very surprised about though - I would have thought some of the lessees would have had a good look at the 'technology', unless of course it was sealed and there were special terms in the lease.

 

Just a few awaiting the crusher

 

[John in Leeds]

Actually, these bicycles are a big hit in Holland at the moment. In the beginning only for the elderly, but they are now "accepted" even for young people.

But they don't make the world greener, because most of the times they are not used to replace commuting cars. Young people buy them because they are lazy... You even see young people in special 45 km/h cars (meant for the disabled). It's considered cool.

 

Wish they were a big hit here. In Holland where the majority of riding is flat there would seem to be little advantage. In Uk particularly where there are many hills and few cycle only facilities they are extremely appropriate. Commuting with assist allows a closer speed to the accompanying traffic and where congestion is high really cuts down journey times. They are catching on slowly as the battery technology improves. However unless there is a catastrophic change in car use I don't think it will become mainstream.

[Skeeve]

But send them ALL to the crusher with buyers queing round the block? Come on.

 

All prototypes cost a shed load of money, everyone understands that. I think GM produced nearly 1100 vehicles. GM had the opportunity to sell these cars off and make a contribution towards that investment. They will have patents to protect their R & D yet they chose to destroy them all. How do we know the technology was not cheap enough to be viable? Sorry mate, to me it just does not add up.

 

One thing I'm very surprised about though - I would have thought some of the lessees would have had a good look at the 'technology', unless of course it was sealed and there were special terms in the lease.

 

The technology is all out there; the EV1 was a direct outgrowth of Paul McReady's solar-car race winner; in fact, GM hired him to do the initial design work on the concept car that resulted in the EV1!

 

I don't blame GM for destroying all the EV1s. As sad as it was to witness, it is the inevitable result of our legal system run amok: GM literally could not afford to have let those prototypes get loose in the wild after the end of the test program for fear of the inevitable nuisance suits from those inDUHviduals seeking to enrich themselves at the behest of some shady shyster at GM's expense.

 

The EV1 was doomed to failure for the same reason any other all-electric vehicle is: no range. Until there is a many-fold quantum leap in battery or fuel-cell technology, hybrids are the answer, just as they have been since the 70's when the first home experimenters first pointed the way...

[John in Leeds]

I don't blame GM for destroying all the EV1s. As sad as it was to witness, it is the inevitable result of our legal system run amok: GM literally could not afford to have let those prototypes get loose in the wild after the end of the test program for fear of the inevitable nuisance suits from those inDUHviduals seeking to enrich themselves at the behest of some shady shyster at GM's expense.

 

Skeeve, thanks for the explanation.

[mike wilson]

If they can rid themselves of those expensive union workers, and build new lines with non-union workers, they have a good chance. It not, they are done!

 

Funny how, at the beginning of your post, you are saying that the jobs need to be saved. Then you say that they should all be lost.

 

Replace them with what? Mexicans? Iraquis? Canadians?

[DeBenGuzzi]

The technology is all out there; the EV1 was a direct outgrowth of Paul McReady's solar-car race winner; in fact, GM hired him to do the initial design work on the concept car that resulted in the EV1!

 

I don't blame GM for destroying all the EV1s. As sad as it was to witness, it is the inevitable result of our legal system run amok: GM literally could not afford to have let those prototypes get loose in the wild after the end of the test program for fear of the inevitable nuisance suits from those inDUHviduals seeking to enrich themselves at the behest of some shady shyster at GM's expense.

 

The EV1 was doomed to failure for the same reason any other all-electric vehicle is: no range. Until there is a many-fold quantum leap in battery or fuel-cell technology, hybrids are the answer, just as they have been since the 70's when the first home experimenters first pointed the way...

OH they have the technology for the range the problem is the PRICE, they have the BMW TRUE flex fuel that'll run on straight hydrogen or gasoline and honda has a fuel cell that will out range any current high milage car BUT the technology is so damn expensive to make on the mass scale not to mention where to you fill up your hydrogen tank outside that one scandahouivan country? I wish it would get here sooner as hydrogen could still make a car or motorcycle give off that signature rumble but only spit out water.

you have to wonder if all the cars started spitting out water vapor instead of CO2(which plants actually need) how long before we see a REAL climate change from the REAL greenhouse effect. or god imagine in colder climates your car spitting water all over the road, gives black ice a new meaning, I hope they got a lot of salt ready.

[John in Leeds]

OH they have the technology for the range the problem is the PRICE, they have the BMW TRUE flex fuel that'll run on straight hydrogen or gasoline and honda has a fuel cell that will out range any current high milage car BUT the technology is so damn expensive to make on the mass scale not to mention where to you fill up your hydrogen tank outside that one scandahouivan country? I wish it would get here sooner as hydrogen could still make a car or motorcycle give off that signature rumble but only spit out water.

you have to wonder if all the cars started spitting out water vapor instead of CO2(which plants actually need) how long before we see a REAL climate change from the REAL greenhouse effect. or god imagine in colder climates your car spitting water all over the road, gives black ice a new meaning, I hope they got a lot of salt ready.

 

 

The hydrogen fuel cell thing seems like a red herring. Unless hydrogen can be stored long term in a dense (liquid) form it does not add up. Expensive pressure vessels and super cooling don't seem cheap to me <_>

 

Go on tell me I'm wrong - you know you want to.

[charlie b]

Fuel cells are VERY expensive right now, mainly due to the precious metals used in them I tried to figure out how much platinum it would take to power a car. I stopped when I got to the $200,000 mark. Then where would it come from? How much of the world would need to be mined to make all of it. Oh well.

 

Meanwhile there is a lot of work going on with hydrogen, both for fuel cells and IC. Transport and storage is the big problem and is being tackled. I saw some work the other day on an Aluminum 'sponge' that would 'soak up' H2 in a compact form. The problem with it was it took some heat to get the H2 back out. Another was a special compound that would bond to H2 and then would release with a special catalyst. Both compounds could be reused.

 

The other problem with H2 is production. It still takes a lot of power to extract it (which in the US still comes from oil/coal) and the impact of removing that much water from a local area would be major. Put the plants in the middle of the ocean maybe?

 

The one I like is the start up company who is starting to advertise self-contained nuclear power sets. Big box that can be buried and provide power to 1000 homes. Sounds like the kind of technology we were working on 20 yrs ago for a space based power station. Thermionic production using heat pipes in the reactor.

 

charlie

[dlaing]

GM lost money on every one of those EV1's that it was leasing. How long should a company continue to lose money on a car before it ends the program. It cost more to build the EV1 then they could lease or sell them for. They knew going in that it was just a test. The technology was not yet cheap enough to be viable. But, atleast they tried. Nobody else has stepped up to the plate.

The Ford Escape hybrid is no better then any of GM's hybrid. My mother has one. It gets about 4 mpg better mileage then a reg Escape.

Yes, the Toyota and Honda hybrids are leading the way at the moment. But if they don't watch it, GM will leapfrog over them with the Volt. A true hybrid.

I find it hard to believe they lost money on production of the EV1. Yah the R&D killed the profits, but that is expected.

Toyota's electric Rav4 was another hit that was shut down because of alleged lack of sales, but people pay more than $20,000 second hand for them, because of their value.

 

As for comparison of Escape, Malibu and Prius, here are the "combined" 2009 US EPA MPG numbers:

 

Escape 23

Escape Hybrid 32

 

Malibu 26

Malibu Hybrid 29

 

Toyota Matrix 28

Toyota Prius 46

 

The Malibu, Matrix, and Prius are all about the same cubic area, with the Escape being significantly bigger.

Without actually doing the math, I'd guess the time required to break even on the hybrid investment, a typical driver might take 5-10 years in the Escape, 20-40 years in the Malibu, and 10-15 years in the Prius, compared to if they had bought like models from same car maker.

The Escape pays off the fastest because the non-brid burns alot more fuel.

The Toyota would pay off faster if the Matrix was not so cheap to begin with.

The Malibu Hybrid is a pathetic failure....IMHO, based on the numbers.

Add in the cost of replacement batteries, reliability, etc. and all bets are off.

In GM's defense, I'd even bet the Malibu has the smallest cheapest battery, so the cost for the 100,000 mile battery replacement might not hit the pocket book like the hybrids that really work.

[dlaing]

Actually, these bicycles are a big hit in Holland at the moment. In the beginning only for the elderly, but they are now "accepted" even for young people.

But they don't make the world greener, because most of the times they are not used to replace commuting cars. Young people buy them because they are lazy... You even see young people in special 45 km/h cars (meant for the disabled). It's considered cool.

Yep, more krap for the land fill.

And I certainly am lazy, but there are some pretty big hills on the way to work, where cars scream past the bikes at 70MPH.

If I could make it up the hills at 15mph instead of 5MPH that would be the biggest benefit.

But taking the car is relaxing, warm, dry, safe, with radio on, and not very expensive.

I can't imagine I'd save more than 2000 miles from my car and Guzzi, and when the weather allows,the Guzzi NEEDs to be ridden more frequently, so all in all, I'll just keep dreaming of electric sheep.

[GuzziMoto]

I find it hard to believe they lost money on production of the EV1. Yah the R&D killed the profits, but that is expected.

Toyota's electric Rav4 was another hit that was shut down because of alleged lack of sales, but people pay more than $20,000 second hand for them, because of their value.

 

As for comparison of Escape, Malibu and Prius, here are the "combined" 2009 US EPA MPG numbers:

 

Escape 23

Escape Hybrid 32

 

Malibu 26

Malibu Hybrid 29

 

Toyota Matrix 28

Toyota Prius 46

 

The Malibu, Matrix, and Prius are all about the same cubic area, with the Escape being significantly bigger.

Without actually doing the math, I'd guess the time required to break even on the hybrid investment, a typical driver might take 5-10 years in the Escape, 20-40 years in the Malibu, and 10-15 years in the Prius, compared to if they had bought like models from same car maker.

The Escape pays off the fastest because the non-brid burns alot more fuel.

The Toyota would pay off faster if the Matrix was not so cheap to begin with.

The Malibu Hybrid is a pathetic failure....IMHO, based on the numbers.

Add in the cost of replacement batteries, reliability, etc. and all bets are off.

In GM's defense, I'd even bet the Malibu has the smallest cheapest battery, so the cost for the 100,000 mile battery replacement might not hit the pocket book like the hybrids that really work.

Not sure where you got your numbers for the Escape hybrid, but they are wrong. The EPA combined number you listed for it is actually the EPA highway number I believe (I have not checked to confirm this, but I do not have time at the moment so if I'm wrong I'm sorry). My mother has one and it struggles to get 28 mpg in mostly highway driving with little real "city driving, she lives and works in the burbs. There is little difference between the Escape hybrid technology and the Malibu hybrid technology. And the differences there are lean mostly in the favor of the Malibu.

Edit: After some quick checking, I see why you think the way you do. The Escape hybrid is somehow rated at 34 city/31 highway(2WD). But my mothers experience with hers is it cannot get out of the 20's, with 28 being typical. The Malibu hybrid, on the other hand, is rated at 24 city/ 34 highway. Yet the first test I pulled up on it said that it easily got 36.5 highway and 28.4 city average with 40 mpg on the highway being hit on occassion. So, EPA numbers are in Fords favor, real world numbers may be in Chevys favor.

For clarification, I hate GM and have never bought one. I have drove other peoples on a number of occassions and that was enough. I will consider buying a GM when the Chevy Volt hits the market. That is a real Hybrid, the only one so far that is worth the name (and money).

[dlaing]

Not sure where you got your numbers for the Escape hybrid, but they are wrong. The EPA combined number you listed for it is actually the EPA highway number I believe (I have not checked to confirm this, but I do not have time at the moment so if I'm wrong I'm sorry). My mother has one and it struggles to get 28 mpg in mostly highway driving with little real "city driving, she lives and works in the burbs. There is little difference between the Escape hybrid technology and the Malibu hybrid technology. And the differences there are lean mostly in the favor of the Malibu.

Edit: After some quick checking, I see why you think the way you do. The Escape hybrid is somehow rated at 34 city/31 highway(2WD). But my mothers experience with hers is it cannot get out of the 20's, with 28 being typical. The Malibu hybrid, on the other hand, is rated at 24 city/ 34 highway. Yet the first test I pulled up on it said that it easily got 36.5 highway and 28.4 city average with 40 mpg on the highway being hit on occassion. So, EPA numbers are in Fords favor, real world numbers may be in Chevys favor.

For clarification, I hate GM and have never bought one. I have drove other peoples on a number of occassions and that was enough. I will consider buying a GM when the Chevy Volt hits the market. That is a real Hybrid, the only one so far that is worth the name (and money).

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/sbs.htm

I selected 2009, 2008 and earlier could be different.

I have a 2003 Matrix and I can sometimes meet the Combined, but I can't get anywhere near the Highway EPA ratings, maybe at a steady 50mph in the high desert.

From surfing hybrid forums, and talking to car owners, it seems pretty common to fall well below the EPA ratings with all cars, but especially hybrids.

Even on our forum, I think we get claims anywhere from 30 to 45MPG (US) for our bikes. (and I recall some claims outside that range)

[GuzziMoto]

http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/sbs.htm

I selected 2009, 2008 and earlier could be different.

I have a 2003 Matrix and I can sometimes meet the Combined, but I can't get anywhere near the Highway EPA ratings, maybe at a steady 50mph in the high desert.

From surfing hybrid forums, and talking to car owners, it seems pretty common to fall well below the EPA ratings with all cars, but especially hybrids.

Even on our forum, I think we get claims anywhere from 30 to 45MPG (US) for our bikes. (and I recall some claims outside that range)

Oh, a .gov site. That would explain it. I usually get close to the EPA highway mileage. But hybrids are notorious for getting less then rated, which is why I told my mother she would not get the 34 mpg Ford claimed for the Escape. Last I heard she gets around 28. But I thought it interesting that atleast some people say the Malibu hybrid gets HIGHER then EPA rated.

As I said niether the Malibu or the Escape impresses me. Their technology is almost the same. The Malibu has a slight edge, mostly due to GM having better combustion effiecency. What I am most interested is a real hybrid along the lines of a diesel/electric locomotive. That is what the Volt may be.

[Paul Minnaert]

The guys from Topgear did a test: They drove a Prius arround the track as fast as it could, several rounds. And behind that was following at the same speed a bmw M3. The bmw used less gas.

I suppose city/suburban trafic will make the most difference with a hybrid.